You love cars. You love technology. You love the planet.
You love driving, the sound of a powerful engine, sleek
design elements & comfortable coachwork. You love talking about how fast it
can go or how it can handle corners without spilling your latte. They’re
awesome.
But you have learned a few things in your time on this
planet, and you feel the twinge of guilt when you can’t deny the impact they
make on the environment, the cost of fuel as displayed in baby dolphin
sacrifices. I know. You dream of a day when you can drive a zero-impact vehicle
the way you drive a Porsche 911. You
also dream of a day when you can text on your way to work while your AI car
negotiates freeway traffic without careening into anyone and also steams you a
perfectly hot latte. Keep dreaming for a while. It will happen.
People are working to supply the demand as it becomes
increasingly clear that the future is all about cars and technology. After
attending both SEMA (Specialty Equipment Market Association) and AutomobilityLA
this November, I came back with the answers to the question I pondered most.
Q. How do we get mechanical engineers to work with tech
engineers to build the cars we want?
The simple answer is to recognize the common ground. Everyone
wants new technology to make their lives easier and technologists wants to fill
that request by making it accessible & easy to use for product designers.
Getting from point A to Point B is simply a matter of tech
companies branching out into these auto conventions for just that purpose and
for manufacturers and dealers to embrace them. For example, SEMA is an
exclusive yearly event open only to the automotive industry. Even with this limited
invitation, it draws more than 70,000 domestic and international buyers and
covers over a million square feet of the Las Vegas convention Center.
When I arrived, the scene was dizzying with displays of
flashing lights, smiling booth girls, and brightly colored ephemera. Once I got
my bearings, I found the order among chaos and pieced together the overall
atmosphere. There were restoration and performance tools, transmission
installation kits, tire treatments, fasteners, assemblies & upholstery machines,
just about everything you’d need to build a car or truck any way you’d want. Mostly
things you don’t need to know as a mere car-driving mortal human.
What I was looking for however, was a bridge between the
past and future of car building and I found it. Technology had arrived, though quite subtly. The
addition of a few tech booths offering newer technology tools was subtle but
clear. I found what I was looking for, and wondered how they would be received
and applied to the auto industry.
First, there were companies offering their 3D printers at
attainable prices with the ability to print utilizing a variety of materials. When
I enquired about their target usage for builders, I was told to consider a hard-to-machine,
out of stock part needed for a restoration project. Instead of searching online
to no end or having a designer spend days & weeks fashioning a one-off, you
can now print one up, practically out of thin air. And why keep an enormous
back-stock of parts you may need one day, when you can print on demand? It
seems beyond logical that restorers will have these as a standard shop tool
soon enough.
Moving toward in-house production is quickly becoming a
money and time saving tool. The next items I noticed making waves in the
fabrication department were plasma cutters and water jet systems. These were
not cheap and some take up massive space, but their usefulness in custom metal
part design is undeniable, and many come with inclusive guided training. They
are quickly becoming a must-have for auto-body shops, and are surely leveling
up the competition in other aspects of car design, as well.
The reaction from the attendees I interviewed about these
tools was somewhat mixed, as I expected. There were some that couldn’t wait to
fit their shop with these new elements to be able to accept projects that were
previously too expensive and time-consuming to take on, or to open up the field
for new and custom design work. While there were others that have no use for
these tools when considering their purist belief in hand-built artistry of
design and restoration detail. To these master restoration designers, there is
no substitute for original parts, even as these rare parts become increasingly
scarce.
After considering the ways these tools will be changing the design
& restoration market, I get a sense that changing your car design will soon
enough be as simple as changing your mind and next year, SEMA will have even
more booths offering innovative tech tools with easy to use functionality and
some lower cost-options as demand grows.
I was excited to get over to the LA Auto show press expo;
AutomobilityLA this year, as well. I wanted to see how these entrepreneurs,
luminaries, innovators and developers of engineering & design would present
their vision of the future of transportation. I’ll skip the subject of alternative
fuel / electric vehicles, and anything Elon Musk is doing as you can find
plenty of information on that in other articles.
Here’s the surprising skinny on your future car. Most car
manufacturers are already in the process of launching or have already launched
a connected vehicle platform. By 2020, there will be 152 million connected cars
on the world’s roads.
The number of IoT devices expected to be at play by 2020 is
20 to 30 billion. That’s just 2 teeny years away and is exclusive of
smartphones, tablets & computers.
The major players in the consumer automobile market are eagerly
seeking new ways to fill your car with the brightest technology. They are pursuing
this by utilizing both small and large tech firms and creating their own
internal teams.
The direction everyone is aiming is clearly automated vehicles,
but to take this into perspective, we first need to realize that it’s a
journey, not a destination. Imagine you’re in the middle of a rain-forest of
decision trees looking for wild tacos. You’ve got a journey ahead of you, but
with perseverance, you will eventually make tacos.
Some of the first steps automotive companies are taking is
hiring teams of scientists already trained in their particular field, as
educating internal employees to take on these major technological roles adds an
extensive learning curve that would slow progress.
And while you may be thinking, cool, they’re programming my
new car to seamless route me to the office. No, not exactly. It takes baby
steps. Artificial Intelligence is still in its infancy, and these teams of data
scientists are just now creating machine learning algorithms that can learn
from vehicles and users. One company, Remoto AI from Bright Box, have been on
the market for over 5 years and have amassed about 70 terabytes of raw binary
data to date.
Let me back track here. To create your super AI car, you
need connected vehicle and user data. If there’s no data, there’s no AI. Thus,
the goal of creating connected car platforms is launched.
There is a massive amount of data to process with each
vehicle and user. These telematics devices collect approximately 6-20 megabytes
of data per car, which is over a terabyte per year for 100k vehicles. That
number is fairly conservative, considering this is a growing industry. Like
mining Bitcoin, you need a lot of computing power to work with AI.
The vehicle data collected is mainly date, time, speed,
acceleration, deceleration, cumulative mileage, fuel consumption and
navigation. While the driver data taken via driver history and third-party
services, preserves details such as expected ride duration, low fuel level, and
navigational information such as if there is a gas station nearby.
This data will eventually be used to create rule-generated
algorithms that perfectly steam your latte by the time you step into your climate
controlled automated pod car that knows how to get you to work by 9am. But
again, we’re not there, yet. We expect a
lot from AI but these expectations aren’t based on successful business
practices, but rather an idealization.
Conceptual learning will create the necessary decision
trees, and is currently starting with the basics of monetizing sales and
services. We know how much you dislike the idea of Google data mining (read:
spying) on your online actions to tailor ads to you, but your attitudes on this
will need to change if you want that AI car.
Imagine this scenario: You drive to work every day on the
same route, at about the same speed and drop off your kids at school on the
way. The data absorbed here would be time spent in the car, time spent at
certain speeds, how many times and how long the back passenger-door was opened,
and weather the trunk was opened and closed on that first stop, among 120 other
details. It may seem creepy at first, but remember your end-goal of that magic
AI car.
Now this information is analyzed and indicators utilized to
make product and service recommendations directly to you such as when you might
need maintenance, when you should stop for gas to make it to the office on
time, or if you might be in need of a trunk harness.
All of your responses to these notices will be analyzed, as
well as any changes in behavior so as not to inadvertently spam you with
information you don’t want. It will also be used to recognize evolution in your
lifestyle to offer new recommendations based on behavioral changes such as moving
or growing your family.
That is one aspect of this data usage. The information will
eventually be used by OEM, dealerships and equipment manufacturers to start
thinking of new ways to communicate with customers on every detail of their car
inside and out. Of course, the auto industry is already collecting data on you,
but it’s mainly based on online data, not connected cars.
Information gathered via connected cars with solve issues
and create solutions for sales of services, accessories, and vehicles to give
you exactly what you need from your current car, to recommend a new one that
might be more suited to your needs, and to help them redesign buttons and
functions that aren’t useful to drivers, or maybe don’t function properly.
All of this information will expedite manufacturing,
technology and design to develop cars that offer better functionality, comfort
and ease of use to drivers. While we currently don’t know what changes in the
market will come or what new opportunities will arise, it’s clear that
information will be the power that drives the manufacture of new cars as they
become steady communication devices between you and your dealership.
This technology will also effect the independent custom and
restoration car markets as user data forms a clearer picture of what vehicles
and consumers need. They may need to shift away from standard mechanical
practices to focus on modern customer demands for cleaner fuels, onboard
technology, cars that perform just as well or better than their mechanical
predecessors and maybe eventually that perfect onboard latte, someday.
There is something to consider about supply and demand.
Particularly Automated AI supply and the demand for speed and control. Perhaps
the shift is consumers ready to relinquish control of their cars in favor of
convenience and ultimately relinquishing car enthusiasm completely? I personally
hope not, but perhaps the dream of flying cars has been replaced with the dream
of grey auto-pods.
In either case, by understanding user needs, companies can
modify their strategy to reach their target audience based on real user
behavior. Considering that AI, IoT, 3D printers, VR and whatever else is yet to
come, will be everything and everywhere in the future, how do you think it will
affect your business, and are you prepared to move in that direction?
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